[SMM Analysis] China’s Iron Ore Imports Edge Down in November, Set for Rebound in December on Rising Mine Shipments

In November, China imported 110.54 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, declined 769,000 tons MoM, a decrease of 0.7% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to November totaled 1.139202 billion tons, up 1.4% YoY. Against the backdrop of the steel industry entering the traditional off-season in November, end-user steel consumption demand weakened, and steel mill profits remained under pressure. In addition to some enterprises proactively controlling production in response to environmental protection and staggered production policies, annual blast furnace maintenance was also gradually underway. Overall hot metal production dropped back slightly from the relatively high level of the previous month, leading to a synchronous decline in iron ore demand. Meanwhile, port inventory remained at a relatively high level, and overall market supply was ample. With low import profits and an unattractive spot-futures price spread, importers' enthusiasm for cargo pick-up was generally low, further suppressing actual imports in November.

Looking ahead to December, iron ore imports are expected to rebound slightly MoM. On one hand, the supply side faces pressure to increase volume, as mainstream mines may accelerate converting inventory into shipments to meet annual targets before year-end. On the other hand, with coke prices declining, steel mill profits have seen preliminary improvement, leading to a short-term rise in restocking willingness. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year approaches, to ensure stable and continuous production during the holiday period, rigid stockpiling demand from steel mills for raw material reserves will gradually be released. Therefore, considering both proactive supply increases and seasonal, rigid demand increases, iron ore imports in December are projected to show a slight rebound compared to November.

Sources: GACC